Bali: The Aftermath

Yesterday morning, Bali woke to scenes of devastation that it never thought possible. About twenty years ago, a Qantas pilot commented "It gets to be a bit of a drag - there is only so much perfection you can take." That was before Bali became the tourist destination it is today. There are two Balis: the clubbing, freestyle entertainment that Europeans know from Ibiza and the mountains and beautiful areas that many Europeans go to: this is the more expensive aspect of the Island where temples and palm groves are not soiled by the presence of burger bars and hoards of noisy funmakers.

The noisy parts of Bali pay the bills. Bali has had to trade off its environmental advantages for the money that tourists bring. Indonesia is, generally, a poor country and outposts such as Bali have to be largely self sufficient. The local economy is, by Indonesian standards, wealthy and the whole island benefits.

Like Ibiza, Bali's noisy side is characterised by backpackers (the politically correct name for itinerants who work in low grade casual jobs to pay for entertainment and more travel) and has a drugs problem. Alcohol is freely - and cheaply - available. Unlike many parts of South East Asia, sex tourism is very limited (back packers don't have the money to pay) but sex is a recreational sport amongst the partygoers. Many in Indonesia see it as a modern Sodom and Gomorrah. The economic benefits do not satisfy the moral outrage.

Aside from Australians and a small number of Europeans, Bali is also the playground for the otherwise buttoned-up young Japanese. Alcohol is a normal part of life in Japan, even for those in their early twenties. But sex is not - there are few places that sexually active single Japanese can go - so they go to Bali for frantic weekends away.

Viewed by many as an immoral hell forced upon their country, Bali is not a symbol of westernism, despite the presence of McDonalds, et al, but a symbol of decadence that must be curtailed.

That it is in Indonesia, which has the highest proportion of Muslims in the region, is a particular affront to many.

At the time of the car bomb attacks, scheduled to hit the bars and clubs at their fullest, there were approximately 20,000 Australians in Bali. No figures have, at the time of writing, been released for other nationalities. It is known that Singaporeans also use Bali as a weekend destination.

Australian TV curtailed some more frivolous moments but maintained typical Aussie pragmatism - for example the world's best motor race, the Bathurst 1000, continued live on TV in both Australia and New Zealand but they did not show the post race celebrations. Australia responded with the sort of practical, down to earth actions that were in marked contrast to the reactions in the USA to the September 11 attacks. There was no hysterical TV coverage, little public wailing. The government ordered six RAAF Hercules to fly to Bali to collect injured and to take medical supplies. Anyone who was injured and wanted to fly to Australia for treatment merely had to say so. Qantas simply pulled airliners off other routes and sent them to Bali saying that anyone who wanted to leave just had to get to the airport.

No one knows who did this but of course, no one seems to be able to say the word "terrorism" without putting "Al Queda" in the same sentence. On this occasion, the presumption may be well founded, albeit indirectly.

Indonesia has a problem with Islamic fundamentalists. There have been many violent and terrorist acts in Indonesia over the past ten years or so. There is a dangerous radicalism in Indonesia - for example, it is a crime to import into the country any writing in Chinese characters - including Chinese medicines and unctions. Several years ago, there were riots in which large numbers of Chinese were murdered.

It is, in part, this that worries Malaysia. Indonesian immigrants - many illegal - flood Malaysia. Malaysia has tried many ways to persuade them to return but until it began to use the power to whip them, and to fine and whip those employing them, the tide had not begun to turn. Malaysia has a problem with illegal immigration from all over the region and targeted illegals from everywhere but Indonesia, where the population is Malay, regarded this as a particularly offensive policy.

The Indonesian government, once it was satisfied that conditions in holding camps were good, has withdrawn its criticism of Malaysia but there remains popular complaint and the Malaysian Embassy in Jakarta has been the scene of protests.

One thing that fascinates about the migration is that those who do enter Malaysia illegally do so in order to go to Kuching, Kota Kinabalu or Kuala Lumpur. They do not go to the eastern states which are much more "Muslim-y," at least not in the same number.

The eastern states of Malaysia are largely under the control of PAS, an Islamic party that wants to create Malaysia as an Islamic state with application of, for example, Hudud law. The remainder of Malaysia, with a much more ethnically diverse population, regards that as a retrograde step - even the Muslims in West Malaysia do not, for the most part, wish to adopt that step.

But PAS has passed Hudud laws in recent months. So far, no one has been sentenced under those laws but PAS says this is because it does not have the personnel trained in, for example, amputation of hands.

In Indonesia, there is a group called Jama Islamia - and this group has links to fundamentalist groups in Malaysia and the southern Philippines. The Philippines is more than 60% Catholic - but the southern part has a significant Muslim population. Within that population, there is a small number of radicals who commit acts of terror. Kidnapping is commonplace. The authorities are struggling to round up the criminals but are finding that the terrain favours the bad guys, even when their identity is known.

Jama Islamia wants to build an Islamic super-state in Indonesia, Southern Philippines and Malaysia. Although there may be some support in eastern states, West Malaysia is set against the idea.

It would be naive to imagine that there are no links between Jama Islamia and Al Qaeda, although none have been formally proved. Both are radical, violent and share an objective of Islamic Fundamentalism brought about by force despite the outrage that such action causes amongst Muslims. The target is not a typical Al Queda target - usually, this would be a western economic target. The economic effects on the west will be mainly for the airline industry, at least in general. The effects are too localised for this to be an Al Qaeda attack - Bali's tourism will suffer but other tourist destinations will hardly notice it. The USA will be largely unaffected because it historically pays little or no attention to any outrage outside its own borders or affecting large numbers of Americans. The USA is far too engrossed in the Washington Sniper to bother, much, about two hundred dead Aussies.

The casualty figures may be much higher. It is much more likely that Al Qaeda provided technical support and perhaps limited funding than that it mounted the attack directly.

So far, 187 bodies have been found but only 25 have been identified. The rest are burnt beyond recognition. There are some 200 Australians who have not yet contacted the Consulate so there is presumption that most of the dead come from this group.

The challenge facing the Indonesians, now, is that they have been largely tolerant of radical groups. Internal politics have prevented stern action against them. As a result, they have not made inroads into their financing nor even their accumulation of guns and explosives. In terms of investigating this sort of offence, they are unsophisticated and will now struggle.

Australia is lending immediate investigative support but the problem for Indonesia is that it has to take preventative steps. The US intelligence community warned two months ago of the threat of another large scale attack - but they have been issuing such warnings with boring regularity for a year and with so little additional information that the warnings are no use in the real world.

And, again, there arises the issue that the means of attack was very cheap. The cars that carried the bombs have not been identified but rarely does identification help in such cases. Explosives are not expensive - and in Indonesia where ground clearing remains a widespread activity explosives are not difficult to find. Indeed, the only thing that is different to other attacks in Indonesia is the target and the scale of it.

The motivation for this attack may be very different to the attacks of the 11 Sept 2001 and the targets and the perpetrators also dissimilar. But one factor is common - someone, somewhere, is paying for it, even though the amount involved is small.